Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Hold and monitor; no addition yet
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $142.10 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $152.59 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
Watch — await combined confirmation. An entry assessment has not yet been established.
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T17:00:54.000Z
VIX 20.322026-11-13T17:00:46.000Z
Dollar index 103.352026-11-13T17:05:54.000Z
Market and sector reference
SHOP +0.25% · SPY -0.80% · Peer average -0.13% (DASH, EBAY, GOOG, GOOGL, META, PINS)
2026-11-13T17:13:01.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
6 direct · 6 2nd-order · 0 thematicRanked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.
- #1Impact1.5%FavorableDirectAmazon, Walmart Face New AI Shopping Test: Will Chatbots Recommend Them?31d ago
As the leading infrastructure for independent merchants, Shopify is positioned to become the neutral integration point for AI shopping agents accessing long-tail merchants, capturing some purchase intent diverted away from Amazon and Walmart
Also named: AMZN · WMT · TGT · MSFT · GOOGL
- #2Impact1.6%Favorable2nd-orderGoogle has a plan to keep ads alive even when AI agents do the shopping16d ago
Shopify powers product data, checkout and store infrastructure for merchants, so its traffic-distribution value rises if AI agents continue handling purchase intent.
Also named: GOOG · GOOGL · META · SNAP · PINS · AMZN
- #3Impact3.5%FavorableDirectAmazon Blocked Meta's AI Shopping Agent. Shopify Welcomed It -- and Gets Paid on Every Checkout.51d ago
Welcomes Meta's AI agent and takes a cut on every checkout, reinforcing payments monetization and incremental GMV in agentic commerce
Also named: PYPL · AMZN · META
SHOP is sensitive to small-business onboarding, advertising and GMV trends; if earnings and labor data together suggest no sharp consumer slowdown, confidence in merchant activity improves.
Also named: AMD · SWKS · ADM · BG · PFE · MRK
As the headline partner, Muse-powered checkout could lift merchant conversion and GMV, reinforcing its AI-commerce narrative, though its high-reliability consensus already prices habitual ~10.5% beats
Also named: META · GDDY · PYPL · GPN
- #6Impact1%Favorable2nd-orderAmazon's fight with Meta: Who owns the customer relationship when an agent does the buying?52d ago
As e-commerce infrastructure for independent merchants, Shopify can help brands retain direct customer relationships in an agentic world, offering an alternative to platform giants
Also named: AMZN · META · PYPL · V
If brands want to reduce dependence on Amazon traffic and bidding, they may lean more heavily into owned storefronts and independent commerce channels.
Also named: AMZN · EBAY · GOOGL · META · TTD · PG
- #8Impact1.5%FavorableDirectShopify Stock Rallies on Checkout Partnership With Meta's New Muse AI Agent52d ago
As the preferred checkout partner for Meta's Muse AI, Shopify gains a fresh social-commerce funnel, but with the rally already reported upside from here is limited
Also named: META · PYPL · AMZN
- #9Impact1%Favorable2nd-orderAmazon Has Erased Its Earnings Sell-Off, But Is the Biggest Opportunity Still Ahead?9d ago
If investors re-rate e-commerce and merchant software penetration, platform software names typically benefit alongside the category leader.
Also named: AMZN · BABA · MSFT · GOOGL · META
- #10Impact1.2%Favorable2nd-orderAmazon is moving from cheap to premium -- is that the right move?13d ago
A more premium Amazon typically pushes independent brands and sellers to invest more in off-Amazon branding and direct channels, indirectly benefiting commerce infrastructure providers like Shopify.
Also named: AMZN · EBAY · COST · WMT · MSFT
The rest, archived by time · 2
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
Annual revenue $11.6B · latest quarter up 31.6% YoY · reported FY net income of $1.2B · short-sale volume share near its recent available-day average.
FY revenue
$11.6B
2025-12
Latest Q YoY
+31.6%
Gross margin
48.1%
FY net income
$1.2B
Diluted EPS
$0.95
Short-sale volume share
39.3%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 33.8% · near recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
🐋 Ownership filings (last 180 days)
Recent 13D/13G beneficial ownership filings, which may include amendments. A filing does not establish a recent purchase or a current holding, and its form type alone does not establish investment intent. Read the original filing for details.
- 2026-07-30SCHEDULE 13GBlackRock, Inc.
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score Medium · 48/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
- Sep 2026$0.42 vs $0.33+27.27%
- Jun 2026$0.32 vs $0.28+14.29%
- Mar 2026$0.27 vs $0.22+22.73%
- Dec 2025$0.38 vs $0.41-7.32%
The takeaway
EPS exceeded the corresponding consensus estimates by an average of 14.2% in the quarters shown. This is not a hurdle for the next report or a forecast of the stock's reaction. Analysts made 8 downward revisions over the past four weeks.
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $145.00–$220.00 · Consensus $181.21
Buy / hold / sell 22 / 4 / 0
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T17:20:17.641Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $0.51 · $0.37–$0.66 · 13 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 2 / 8
Estimate dispersion 56.9%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T17:20:17.419Z04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Mixed structure
MA5 $148.72
MA10 $149.67
MA20 $159.58
MA60 $152.09
Last completed-session close $146.78 (-1.66%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.54×
Prior 20-session range $135.65–$180.41 · MA20 change over five sessions -4.02% · CMF20 -0.02
Confirmation to watch: a close above $180.41 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $135.65 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
Complete the company and technical cross-check before defining entry and invalidation conditions.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
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