Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Below defense; watch reduction conditions
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $12.78 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $14.28 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
Watch — await combined confirmation. An entry assessment has not yet been established.
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.15%2026-11-13T19:21:54.000Z
VIX 19.072026-11-13T19:21:46.000Z
Dollar index 103.392026-11-13T19:27:00.000Z
Market and sector reference
RIVN -1.37% · SPY -0.51% · Peer average -1.09% (APTV, F, GM, HMC, LCID, MBLY)
2026-11-13T19:39:36.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
0 direct · 10 2nd-order · 0 thematicRanked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.
- #1Impact1.8%Adverse2nd-orderTesla's Free Cash Flow Just Turned Positive. Here's Why That's Only Half the Story.16d ago
Tesla’s improving cash generation reinforces the view that the EV leader can survive price pressure, raising the bar for still-loss-making pure-play EV startups.
Also named: TSLA · LCID · BWA · APTV · MGA · ENPH
If Tesla’s growth slows, some premium EV demand and brand attention may spill toward other battery-electric players, easing Rivian’s relative competitive pressure.
Also named: TSLA · LCID · AAPL · NVDA · BYDDF · NIO
- #3Impact2%Favorable2nd-orderWhy is Elon Musk scaling back Cybertruck production at Tesla's Texas factory?8d ago
A pullback in Cybertruck output eases competitive pressure in the EV pickup niche, giving Rivian relatively more room in the premium truck and SUV narrative.
Also named: TSLA · FORD · BWA · APTV · LEA · PANW
- #4Impact1.6%Favorable2nd-orderWall Street Breakfast Podcast: Cybertruck Drives Into The Sunset7d ago
A cooler Cybertruck narrative weakens Tesla’s first-mover halo in the electric pickup/off-road segment, giving Rivian more room in product comparisons and potential order capture.
Also named: TSLA · F · NVDA · MGA · 1211.HK · 300750.SZ
- #5Impact2%Adverse2nd-orderMarkets rise, but SpaceX and Tesla stocks fall, after Dems take back the House and Senate. Here's why9d ago
Any marginal tightening in EV incentives and policy support pressures valuations across still-unprofitable EV makers.
Also named: SPCX · LMT · NOC · TSLA · LCID · MBLY
A narrower Cybertruck growth window reduces Tesla’s sustained pressure in the electric pickup niche, leaving Rivian’s R1T more room for brand and order capture.
Also named: TSLA · GM
- #7Impact1.4%Favorable2nd-orderTesla to wind down Cybertruck production at Texas gigafactory next year, Musk says8d ago
A softer Cybertruck demand narrative weakens the EV pickup boom story and can modestly improve the relative appeal of competitors still proving order durability.
Also named: TSLA · F · MGA · APTV · 005930.KS
- #8Impact1.8%Adverse2nd-orderSpaceX, Tesla stocks plunge as Democrats' win raises AI regulation, merger risks9d ago
When policy and regulatory uncertainty rises, markets typically lower the valuation of money-losing EV names that depend on external funding.
Also named: TSLA · LCID · MBLY · NVDA · GOOGL · META
- #9Impact1%Adverse2nd-orderTesla's Cybercab Reaches Dallas in November, and Nevada Just Cleared 5,000 Robotaxis in Las Vegas. Here's the Number That Makes the Bulls Right.13d ago
If the market re-anchors autonomous commercialization around Tesla, capital may rotate out of EV names that have not yet established a clear path to profitability.
Also named: TSLA · UBER · LYFT · GM · NVDA · QCOM
- #10Impact0.9%Favorable2nd-orderSpaceX Is Considering a Merger With Tesla. Here's Why That Would Be a Bad Move.13d ago
If Tesla’s multiple compresses on the merger story, pure-play EV peers may get a small relative valuation lift.
Also named: TSLA · SPCX · RKLB · AAPL
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
Annual revenue $5.4B · latest quarter up 38.3% YoY · reported FY net loss of $3.6B · short-sale volume share below its recent available-day average.
FY revenue
$5.4B
2025-12
Latest Q YoY
+38.3%
Gross margin
2.7%
FY net loss
$3.6B
Diluted EPS
$-3.07
Short-sale volume share
40.5%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 48.2% · below recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score Medium · 48/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
- Sep 2026-$0.62 vs -$0.84+26.19%
- Jun 2026-$0.64 vs -$0.83+22.89%
- Mar 2026-$0.71 vs -$0.75+5.33%
- Dec 2025-$0.66 vs -$0.83+20.48%
The takeaway
EPS exceeded the corresponding consensus estimates by an average of 18.7% in the quarters shown. This is not a hurdle for the next report or a forecast of the stock's reaction.
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $10.00–$22.00 · Consensus $16.72
Buy / hold / sell 8 / 6 / 4
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T19:40:46.868Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $-0.71 · $-0.84–$-0.64 · 5 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 2 / 2
Estimate dispersion 28.2%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T19:40:43.655Z04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Mixed structure
MA5 $13.53
MA10 $13.36
MA20 $12.68
MA60 $14.40
Last completed-session close $12.80 (-5.47%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.83×
Prior 20-session range $11.38–$14.31 · MA20 change over five sessions +0.32% · CMF20 -0.08
Confirmation to watch: a close above $14.31 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $11.38 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
Complete the company and technical cross-check before defining entry and invalidation conditions.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
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