CMECME Group
$318.24+0.87%Delayed market dataFutures exchangeAsset mgmt, brokers & exchanges · 12 peers →Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Hold and monitor; no addition yet
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $300.58 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $321.34 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
Watch — await combined confirmation. An entry assessment has not yet been established.
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T17:50:44.000Z
VIX 19.722026-11-13T17:50:46.000Z
Dollar index 103.412026-11-13T17:56:25.000Z
Market and sector reference
CME +1.00% · SPY -0.77% · Peer average +0.43% (APO, BLK, BX, GS, ICE, KKR)
2026-11-13T17:44:10.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
4 direct · 5 2nd-order · 0 thematicRanked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.
- #1Impact1.8%FavorableDirectCME Group to Launch CME Securities Clearing on December 7 to Expand Clearing Capacity, Choice and Capital Efficiency in the U.S. Treasury Market64d ago
New Treasury clearing line taps the SEC-mandated flow and widens CME's capital-efficiency moat, though near-term revenue contribution is modest
Also named: ICE · NDAQ
- #2Impact1.2%Favorable2nd-orderCan Companies Stop Their Shares From Being Tokenized? Many Big Names Say Yes8d ago
Tighter tokenization boundaries modestly improve the relative appeal of regulated on-exchange trading, but the benefit to CME is mostly incremental and structural.
Also named: ICE · NASDAQ · AAPL · MSFT · DFIN · AMZN
- #3Impact2.6%FavorableDirectThe CFTC Just Cleared Stock Perpetual Futures for U.S. Exchanges. Does That Hurt Hyperliquid?10d ago
Regulatory approval broadens CME’s equity-derivatives lineup and should add incremental fee income to its high-margin trading and clearing model without requiring heavy capital outlays.
Also named: ICE · CBOE · HYPE · COIN
- #4Impact2.2%FavorableDirectCrypto ETFs Already Go Far Beyond Bitcoin. The SEC Wants to Know If Its Rules Have Kept Up14d ago
Bitcoin- and ether-linked futures and options are key hedging tools for institutional ETF exposures, so a broader ETF lineup typically boosts CME derivatives volume and hedging demand.
Also named: BLK · GLXY · COIN · CRCL
- #5Impact1.5%Adverse2nd-orderRobinhood's Prediction Markets Move Beyond Sports: Why It Matters51d ago
As prediction markets expand into non-sports categories, competitive overlap with CME's event contracts and retail derivatives grows, potentially eroding some future upside.
Also named: HOOD · COIN · ICE · DKNG · FLUT
- #6Impact1.5%FavorableDirectRobinhood Stock Rises with Bitcoin Amid CFTC's New Crypto Proposal56d ago
A clearer CFTC framework helps CME expand trading volumes and product lines for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures contracts
Also named: HOOD · COIN · IBKR · ICE · MSTR · MARA
- #7Impact0.9%Adverse2nd-orderCboe and Citadel Securities Are Suing to Overturn the CFTC's Approval of Stock Perpetual Futures. Could That Slow Hyperliquid?9d ago
If the court process makes regulators more cautious on novel derivatives, the caution can spill over into broader product-launch expectations across exchanges.
Also named: HYPE · COIN · CBOE · ICE · CITA · GETY
- #8Impact1%Favorable2nd-orderCoinbase Q3: The Cybersecurity Scare May Be Hiding An Opportunity (Rating Upgrade)14d ago
If the Coinbase scare dampens retail risk appetite, some institutional and professional flow may gravitate toward more regulated derivatives venues, creating a modest substitution tailwind.
Also named: COIN · HOOD · CRWD · PANW · OKTA · BTC
CME already offers bitcoin and ether futures, and a clearer regulatory framework should support greater institutional participation in its crypto derivatives business
Also named: COIN · HOOD · MSTR
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
Annual revenue $6.5B · latest quarter up 13% YoY · reported FY net income of $4.1B · short-sale volume share near its recent available-day average.
FY revenue
$6.5B
2025-12
Latest Q YoY
+13%
FY net income
$4.1B
Diluted EPS
$11.18
Short-sale volume share
37.5%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 42.6% · near recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score High · 76/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
- Sep 2026$3.02 vs $2.98+1.34%
- Jun 2026$2.99 vs $2.91+2.75%
- Mar 2026$3.36 vs $3.37-0.3%
- Dec 2025$2.77 vs $2.75+0.73%
The takeaway
The average EPS surprise in the quarters shown is small. Positive and negative surprises can offset each other, so review each quarter separately. Analysts made 4 upward revisions over the past four weeks.
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $227.00–$367.00 · Consensus $310.00
Buy / hold / sell 6 / 4 / 2
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T18:11:27.655Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $3.01 · $2.97–$3.07 · 8 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 4 / 2
Estimate dispersion 3.3%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T18:11:27.525Z04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Uptrend structure
MA5 $310.17
MA10 $307.98
MA20 $303.10
MA60 $284.40
Last completed-session close $315.50 (-0.12%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.96×
Prior 20-session range $285.95–$316.27 · MA20 change over five sessions +2.36% · CMF20 0.21
- Accumulation-like price/volume pattern (inference)
Confirmation to watch: a close above $316.27 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $285.95 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
Complete the company and technical cross-check before defining entry and invalidation conditions.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
See every affected stock, second-order impact and risk factor. Try Pro free for 7 days — no credit card required.
Start my free trial