Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Below defense; watch reduction conditions
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $0.705 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $0.839 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
ENTRY CONCLUSION
Watch — hold off on buying the dip
The valuation margin of safety, technical confirmation and market/estimate conditions are not all satisfied. No entry signal is issued.
The research does not currently establish an actionable entry price. Do not buy solely because the stock has fallen sharply; wait for the key conditions to be verified before reconsidering entry.
Why
BTBT is in a clear downtrend: it closed at 0.905, below MA5/10/20/60, and broke the 0.93 support level; volume was only 0.18x the 20-day average, CMF20 was -0.40, and the technical readout was “breakdown / selling / distribution-like.” Macro conditions are not risk-friendly, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.106%, VIX at 18.36, and the USD index at 101.675; peers and related names mostly rose intraday, while BTBT lagged, suggesting company-specific pressure dominates. On fundamentals and valuation, the supplied evidence does not reliably support unrestricted cash, total interest-bearing debt, fully diluted shares, or incremental equity funding needs, so no defensible financial scenario can be built. Nasdaq consensus only shows FY Sep 2026 EPS around -0.05 with sparse coverage and remaining dispersion; optimistic targets cannot override the weak price structure or the lack of sufficient financial evidence.
Research as of 2026-10-20T14:12:49.438Z · Research conclusion, not a real-time trading signal · Outdated; update before reassessing
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.14%2026-11-13T19:01:14.000Z
VIX 19.302026-11-13T19:01:01.000Z
Dollar index 103.392026-11-13T19:06:16.000Z
Market and sector reference
BTBT -10.78% · SPY -0.48% · Peer average -4.12% (CLSK, COIN, HIVE, HUT, MARA, MSTR)
2026-11-13T19:15:08.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
Our feed has no recent coverage linked to this stock. That does not mean there are no events affecting its price.
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
Annual revenue $114M · latest quarter down 11.2% YoY · reported FY net loss of $80M · short-sale volume share near its recent available-day average.
FY revenue
$114M
2025-12
Latest Q YoY
-11.2%
FY net loss
$80M
Diluted EPS
$-0.31
Short-sale volume share
55.2%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 58.5% · near recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
🐋 Ownership filings (last 180 days)
Recent 13D/13G beneficial ownership filings, which may include amendments. A filing does not establish a recent purchase or a current holding, and its form type alone does not establish investment intent. Read the original filing for details.
- 2026-08-24SCHEDULE 13D/AHuang Erke
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score Low · 26/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
This data has a low context score. Analyst coverage, disagreement, or revisions may limit its usefulness. Review the estimate range and underlying data.
- Jun 2026-$0.06 vs -$0.05-20%
- Mar 2026-$0.11 vs -$0.04-175%
- Dec 2025-$0.04 vs -$0.02-100%
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $3.50–$6.00 · Consensus $4.13
Buy / hold / sell 4 / 0 / 0
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T19:21:34.731Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $-0.03 · $-0.05–$-0.01 · 3 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 0 / 0
Estimate dispersion 133.3%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T19:21:34.621ZFinancial inputs and original sources
gpt-5.4-mini · 2026-10-20T14:12:49.438Z · AI-generated and checked, not an independent human audit
04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Downtrend structure
MA5 $0.76
MA10 $0.77
MA20 $0.84
MA60 $1.30
Last completed-session close $0.77 (-3.65%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.53×
Prior 20-session range $0.69–$1.10 · MA20 change over five sessions -10.99% · CMF20 -0.27
- Long upper wick; rally rejected
- Distribution-like weak closes (inference)
Confirmation to watch: a close above $1.10 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $0.69 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
When to reconsider
- Price reclaims and holds above 0.93, ideally also back above MA5/MA10 to confirm a short-term reversal.
- Volume-driven repair: trading volume rises well above the 20-day average and CMF20 improves materially from negative territory, indicating easing supply pressure.
- Relative strength improves: BTBT stops underperforming crypto-mining peers and SPY, and the rebound is more than a weak oversold bounce.
- If later disclosures clearly support cash, debt, fully diluted shares, and funding-gap metrics, the financial constraint should be reassessed.
What would invalidate the thesis
- A close back below 0.93 that is not quickly reclaimed would mean support has failed.
- If price remains below MA20/MA60 and rebound volume stays weak, the downtrend remains dominant.
- If later financial disclosure shows cash is insufficient to cover operating needs and debt pressure, or reveals new dilution/financing dependence, the fundamental case deteriorates further.
- If peers rebound while BTBT continues to lag, the issue is more company-specific than sector-wide.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
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