AAOIApplied Optoelectronics
$48.43-8.36%Delayed market dataOptical modulesHardware & networking · 12 peers →Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Hold and monitor; no addition yet
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $45.15 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $57.94 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
Watch — await combined confirmation. An entry assessment has not yet been established.
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T16:34:44.000Z
VIX 20.092026-11-13T16:34:46.000Z
Dollar index 103.352026-11-13T16:39:52.000Z
Market and sector reference
AAOI -8.42% · SPY -1.01% · Peer average -5.71% (AAPL, ANET, COHR, CSCO, DELL, HPE)
2026-11-13T16:47:56.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
0 direct · 8 2nd-order · 0 thematicRanked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.
- #1Impact2%Favorable2nd-orderTesla Makes Bullish Move, But These Five AI Stocks Lead The S&P 50018d ago
As a supplier of datacenter transceivers and access optical components, AAOI benefits if AI networking investment stays elevated and downstream customers keep ordering.
Also named: COHR · LITE · FNSR · FIX · ROK · EMR
- #2Impact3.5%Favorable2nd-orderBig Tech Just Tried to Borrow More Than $35 Billion in a Single Day10d ago
Rising demand for high-speed optical interconnects lifts purchases of transceivers and related components.
Also named: NVDA · SMCI · DELL · HPE · AMAT · LRCX
- #3Impact3.1%Favorable2nd-orderMRVL's Proposed LITE Buyout Suggests Long-Term AI Infrastructure Boom10d ago
A stronger long-term demand outlook for AI data-center optics should support order expectations and valuation sentiment for second-tier transceiver makers.
Also named: LITE · COHR · MRVL · AVGO · NVDA · ANET
- #4Impact3%Favorable2nd-orderCoherent: The AI Premium Is Gone, The Earnings Aren't (Rating Upgrade)11d ago
If AI datacenter demand is still intact, investors are likely to assign a better growth multiple to smaller optical component vendors with operating leverage.
Also named: COHR · LITE · FNSR · KLAC · AMAT · LRCX
Its business is directly exposed to cloud and data-center optical module demand, so a stronger sector narrative raises revenue expectations.
Also named: COHR · LITE · FNSR · INFN · ANET · IPGP
If Coherent sounds constructive on datacenter optics and laser demand, it lifts expectations for volume recovery and margin improvement among second-tier transceiver makers.
Also named: COHR · LITE · GLW · TRUM · IPGP · APH
- #7Impact2.2%Favorable2nd-orderAI Trade in Full Focus: AAPL & PLTR Earnings Ahead, MRVL Buying LITE, SPCX Eyes Boost Mobile11d ago
The market may interpret MRVL’s LITE move as confirmation that optical interconnect demand remains robust, supporting order expectations for peers in the same component stack.
Also named: MRVL · LITE · CREE · PLTR · SNOW · DDOG
If COHR's order and shipment cadence improves, the market typically lifts expectations for peers in optical modules and components.
Also named: COHR · LITE · IPGP · FNSR · GLW
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
Annual revenue $456M · latest quarter up 127.5% YoY · reported FY net loss of $38M · short-sale volume share below its recent available-day average.
FY revenue
$456M
2025-12
Latest Q YoY
+127.5%
Gross margin
30%
FY net loss
$38M
Diluted EPS
$-0.64
Short-sale volume share
26%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 50.9% · below recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
🐋 Ownership filings (last 180 days)
Recent 13D/13G beneficial ownership filings, which may include amendments. A filing does not establish a recent purchase or a current holding, and its form type alone does not establish investment intent. Read the original filing for details.
- 2026-10-30SCHEDULE 13GVANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
- 2026-10-27SCHEDULE 13G/ABlackRock, Inc.
- 2026-08-10SCHEDULE 13G/AJANE STREET GROUP, LLC
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score Low · 26/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
This data has a low context score. Analyst coverage, disagreement, or revisions may limit its usefulness. Review the estimate range and underlying data.
- Sep 2026$0.10 vs $0.08+25%
- Jun 2026$0.00 vs -$0.02+100%
- Mar 2026-$0.12 vs -$0.10-20%
- Dec 2025-$0.04 vs -$0.16+75%
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $45.00–$165.00 · Consensus $111.25
Buy / hold / sell 3 / 1 / 0
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T16:50:28.932Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $0.53 · $0.38–$0.69 · 3 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 0 / 0
Estimate dispersion 58.5%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T16:50:28.833Z04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Downtrend structure
MA5 $51.85
MA10 $56.09
MA20 $65.73
MA60 $92.65
Last completed-session close $52.85 (-5.39%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.73×
Prior 20-session range $45.15–$85.02 · MA20 change over five sessions -14.27% · CMF20 -0.16
- Long upper wick; rally rejected
- Distribution-like weak closes (inference)
Confirmation to watch: a close above $85.02 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $45.15 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
Complete the company and technical cross-check before defining entry and invalidation conditions.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
See every affected stock, second-order impact and risk factor. Try Pro free for 7 days — no credit card required.
Start my free trial